📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

A dramatic shift in the geopolitical backdrop triggered a full-blown risk-on reversal across global markets. Washington’s last-minute ceasefire agreement with Iran, secured just an hour before the deadline set by Trump, sparked a powerful rally in risk assets. The S&P 500 surged nearly 3% to a one-month high, while European equities jumped 5%. Crude oil collapsed 13% in what marks one of the sharpest single-day declines in years, as immediate supply disruption fears eased.

The move extended across asset classes. The $ weakened notably, with the DXY Index falling to 99, its lowest level in four weeks, against broad strength in the €, £, and Swiss franc. At the same time, Treasuries traded firmer, reinforcing the synchronised nature of the move: lower oil, weaker dollar, and higher equities, a classic unwind of geopolitical risk premium.

Notably, markets moved decisively ahead of confirmation. Investors did not wait for evidence that the ceasefire would hold or for shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz to normalise. Instead, positioning rapidly shifted toward de-escalation, driving what can best be described as a relief rally across risk assets, even as missiles and drones reportedly continued to be exchanged in the region.

However, cracks began to emerge into the close. Reports of ceasefire violations and continued hostilities introduced fresh uncertainty, with the US preparing direct talks led by Vice President Vance. Oil prices rebounded ~2% after the close following the historic drop, highlighting how fragile sentiment remains. For now, markets are trading on the hope of de-escalation, but with headline risk still firmly in control.

Economics: → FOMC Minutes reinforce a cautious, hawkish stance, with policymakers flagging persistent inflation risks and signalling limited urgency to cut rates. Updated projections show a higher inflation path into 2026, implying policy may need to stay restrictive for longer, with any shift toward easing remaining strictly data dependent. Futures imply a ~98% chance for no rate change by the Fed at its next meeting in 20 days and the following in mid-June.

→ €-zone retail sales slipped 0.2% MoM after a modest prior gain, reinforcing a pattern of choppy and fragile consumer demand, with weakness typically driven by non-food and fuel categories. Despite a still positive +1.7% YoY print, the data suggests only a gradual, uneven recovery in consumption, consistent with subdued confidence and soft underlying growth momentum.

→ The Reserve Bank of India kept rates unchanged at 5.25%, maintaining a neutral, “wait-and-watch” stance as policymakers assess the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation and growth. Officials warned that energy-driven inflation risks are rising, with CPI seen at ~4.6% and growth at ~6.9%, while disruptions could pressure activity, keeping policy on hold unless risks materially shift.

Deals: → In private markets, PE firm General Atlantic is acquiring San Diego-based Team Services Holding, a non-medical home care company, for ~$3bn (incl. debt), implying 10x EBITDA and highlighting continued private equity appetite for stable, cash-generative healthcare services. The deal underscores a rotation toward traditional healthcare assets, less exposed to AI disruption, while targeting growth in home-care demand, particularly driven by aging demographics and cost-efficient care models.

→ A potential £10bn sale of a controlling stake in privately owned Associated British Ports, which handles 25% of UK seaborne trade, has attracted interest from major infrastructure investors including KKR, Global Infrastructure Partners and DP World. The stake is being sold by Canadian pension funds (CPPIB and OMERS), highlighting strong demand for large-scale, resilient infrastructure assets with stable cash flows, and setting up a potentially competitive bidding.

→ In IPOs, The Metals Royalty Company (TMCR), which acquires and manages metals and mineral royalties and streams to support mining sector growth in North America, completed a direct listing on Nasdaq. The stock began trading at ~$12 per share and closed at $14, implying a market cap of $770mn.

Day Ahead:

Data → US PCE inflation, personal spending & income; Mexico inflation; Germany trade and industrial production.

Earnings → Progressive Corp.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

A sharp escalation in the US–Iran conflict has dominated market narrative and price action over the past 24 hours, driving significant intraday volatility across asset classes. Tensions intensified after Trump issued a stark ultimatum, setting an 8 pm ET Tuesday deadline for a ceasefire agreement tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows.

The rhetoric marked a notable step-up in geopolitical risk as Trump warned:

“A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will”

while reiterating threats to target Iran’s infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if no agreement is reached.

Behind the scenes, mediators, including Pakistan, are pushing for a two-week pause, although Iran has reportedly stepped back from negotiations following the latest escalation. Meanwhile, US strikes on Kharg Island, one of Iran’s key oil export hubs in the Persian Gulf, underscore the growing risk of supply disruption beyond the Strait itself.

Markets reflected this binary backdrop. The S&P 500 initially dropped over 1% before recovering into the close, finishing broadly flat as investors positioned for a potential last-minute diplomatic resolution. Price action suggests markets are assigning some probability to de-escalation, despite the increasingly aggressive rhetoric.

Front-month (May) WTI crude surged more than 5% intraday to $117, its highest level since mid-2022, before reversing to end slightly lower, highlighting the extreme sensitivity to headline risk. The session encapsulated the current regime: sharp, headline-driven swings with positioning anchored around a binary geopolitical outcome.

Stepping back from the immediate geopolitical noise, a broader structural theme in equities remains firmly in place: the S&P 500 dividend yield has fallen to ~1.25%, near 50-year lows, despite dividends historically contributing approx 30% of long-term returns. This reflects index concentration in low-dividend Big Tech, such as Microsoft and Nvidia, which favour reinvestment and buybacks over cash payouts.

Economics: → US durable goods orders fell -1.4% MoM in February (vs -0.5% expected), dragged by a pullback in aircraft, while core capital goods remained more resilient, pointing to underlying business investment holding up.

→ US ADP employment change averaged +26,000 (4-week average), marking the third consecutive week of improvement and the strongest pace since the series began, pointing to a rebound in hiring momentum. While the level remains modest in absolute terms, the steady acceleration suggests labour market conditions are stabilising after recent softness, reinforcing a cautiously positive near-term outlook.

Deals: → Private equity buyout activity slowed sharply in Q1’26, with deal value falling to $170bn (-36% QoQ, -8% YoY) as geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around AI’s impact on tech weighed on dealmaking. The sector continues to face headwinds from higher rates and difficult exits, while fundraising remained relatively resilient at $86bn.

→ New York-based Pershing Square Capital Mgt, led by Bill Ackman, is bidding for Netherlands-based Universal Music Group (mcap €35bn) in a ~$60bn deal via a merger with its SPARC (Special Purpose Acquisition Rights Co) vehicle, aiming to relist the group on the NYSE. The proposal targets UMG’s perceived valuation discount despite strong fundamentals, with the transaction expected to close by year-end if approved. UMH shares in Amsterdam gained 11% today but remain 17% lower in the LTM.

→ California-based biotech Gilead Sciences (mcap $172bn) will acquire Germany-based Tubulis for $5bn, expanding its oncology pipeline with next-generation antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). The deal strengthens Gilead’s position in targeted cancer therapies, adding early-stage assets built on Tubulis’ proprietary ADC platform. Tubulis is a private, venture-backed biotech, owned by a syndicate of VC and institutional investors (e.g. Venrock, EQT Life Sciences, Nextech Invest, Wellington, etc.), alongside founders and management.

→ Blackstone and NY-based investment firm Tinicum will acquire aerospace & defence Senior Plc (mcap £1.2bn) of the UK for £1.4bn in cash, marking another takeover of a London-listed industrial company. Senior shares gained 50% YTD.

Day Ahead:

Data → US FOMC Minutes, €-zone retail sales, Germany factory orders.

Monetary Policy → India (unch at 5.25% exp)

Earnings → Delta Air Lines (PM).

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Geopolitics dominated the Easter weekend, with the Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continuing to drive oil prices and investor sentiment. Trump escalated rhetoric, warning Iran must agree to reopen the strait as part of a ceasefire deal by Tuesday or face potential military strikes on key infrastructure, while Tehran rejected the proposal and threatened more “crushing” retaliation; tensions were further heightened by the reported downing of two US fighter jets in Irani territory and failed attempts by Qatar’s LNG tankers to transit the strait.

Despite the escalation, markets showed resilience, with US equities recovering early losses as reports of diplomatic efforts, including a ceasefire framework involving Pakistan, revived hopes for de-escalation and a reopening of Hormuz. European markets remained closed for Easter Monday, while investor focus now turns to US CPI on Friday and a light earnings calendar, including Delta Air Lines on Wednesday, as macro data and geopolitics continue to set the tone.

Economics: → On Friday, the US released labour data for March. Non-farm payrolls rose by 178k with unemployment at 4.3%, both beating expectations (60k and 4.4%) and signalling a rebound. However, February was revised sharply lower to -133k jobs (from -92k initially), highlighting prior weakness and volatility in the labour market. The upside surprise in March was driven by healthcare and construction, but details were softer (lower participation, modest wages), suggesting uneven momentum. Overall sentiment: headline strong but quality mixed, reinforcing a cautious Fed stance as the labour market stabilises but remains fragile beneath the surface.

→ Today’s US ISM Services PMI came in at 54, in line with expectations but down from February, signalling continued expansion in services, albeit with some moderation in momentum.

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Deals: → California-based biotech Neurocrine Biosciences (mcap $13bn) will acquire Soleno Therapeutics (mcap $2.8bn) for $2.9bn (+34% premium), adding the only approved treatment for Prader-Willi syndrome to expand its rare-disease/endocrinology portfolio. The deal centres on Soleno’s Vykat XR, a newly launched drug generating ~$190m in 2025 sales, with Neurocrine funding the acquisition via cash and modest debt and targeting closing within ~90 days. Soleno shares jumped 32% today, 13% YTD, but remain 22% lower in the LTM.

→ French oil & gas giant TotalEnergies (mcap $197bn) and UAE-based renewable energy company Masdar are forming a $2.2bn 50/50 JV focused on onshore solar, wind and battery storage across nine Asian markets. The venture starts with 3GW operational capacity and targets 6GW by 2030, serving as the partners’ exclusive platform to capture Asia’s growing power demand.

Day Ahead:

Data → US durable goods and ADP employment change; €-zone Services PMI.

Earnings → n/a. See you tomorrow.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Geopolitics remained firmly in the driver’s seat, with the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran continuing to rattle global markets. Front-month (May) oil futures surged above $110 amid fears of a prolonged disruption, as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz kept investors on edge, with some warning that a sustained closure could tip the €-zone into recession.

Market sentiment deteriorated after Trump’s primetime address last night offered little clarity on how the conflict would be wound down over the next two to three weeks, despite claims that military objectives were “nearing completion.” The lack of a clear timeline weighed on risk assets early in the session, reinforcing concerns that the war, and its economic fallout, could drag on.

US equities initially sold off sharply but staged a recovery to finish modestly higher on the day, supported by signs of potential de-escalation after Iran indicated it was working with Oman on a protocol to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The rebound highlighted how sensitive markets remain to any headlines suggesting even a partial reopening of key energy routes.

Looking ahead, liquidity is set to thin significantly with markets closed for Good Friday across the US and Europe, leaving only parts of Asia, notably Tokyo and Shanghai exchanges, open, which could amplify volatility around any further geopolitical developments.

→ In the private credit sector, Blue Owl Capital (mcap $13bn) faced $5.4bn in redemption requests in Q1 across two private credit funds (22% and 41% of assets), forcing it to cap withdrawals at 5% as outflows accelerate. The scale of redemptions highlights mounting liquidity pressure in private credit, drawing regulatory attention and raising concerns over sustained outflows and fee income erosion. Blue Owl Cap shares are down 43% YTD and -60% in the LTM.

→ Tesla reported Q1 deliveries of 358k vehicles, missing expectations and marking one of its weakest quarters in years, with a record build-up in inventory. The data reinforces a deepening demand slowdown amid rising competition and fading EV incentives, weighing on sentiment despite Tesla’s pivot toward AI, robotics and autonomous driving. Shares fell ~6% today and are -20% YTD.

Economics: → US initial jobless claims fell to 202k, below estimates, signalling a still-resilient labour market and supporting a modestly positive risk sentiment.

→ Swiss inflation rose to 0.3% YoY, the highest in a year, but came in below expectations, pointing to mild price pressures that remain contained and unlikely to shift policy near term.

Deals: → Global M&A surged to $1.2tn in Q1, with a record 22 mega-deals above $10bn, marking a third consecutive $1tn+ quarter despite geopolitical tensions and AI-driven uncertainty. Activity was led by the US ($630bn) and a sharp rebound in Europe (+82% YoY), with large transactions spanning energy, healthcare and consumer sectors. Momentum remains strong as corporates stay active, but risks from Middle East conflict, elevated oil prices and softer tech dealmaking could temper activity ahead. Deals included Unilever–McCormick, Sysco–Jetro Restaurant Depot, Devon Energy–Coterra Energy and GIP+EQT–AES Corp.

→ KKR raised $23bn for its North America-focused private equity fund (NAX4), its largest regional vehicle, targeting opportunistic deals as companies stay private longer. The strong raise underscores sustained investor demand for private markets, with KKR highlighting ~23% gross returns from prior funds and private equity AUM growing to $229bn. Private equity exits fell 36% YoY to $103bn in Q1’26 amid AI-driven volatility and geopolitical risks, highlighting a tougher exit environment and delaying capital recycling for sponsors.

→ Amazon is reportedly in talks to acquire mobile satellite company Globalstar (mcap $9.5bn) for ~$9bn, aiming to accelerate its low-earth-orbit satellite strategy and compete with SpaceX’s Starlink network. The move follows SpaceX’s confidential IPO filing, where Starlink is seen as a key driver of a potential ~$1.75tn valuation, underscoring intensifying competition in satellite internet. GSAT shares gained 8% today and 21% YTD.

→ Goldman Sachs completed its $2bn acquisition of Innovator Capital Management, boosting its ETF platform to $90bn in assets and expanding into the fast-growing active ETF segment. The deal strengthens Goldman’s push into outcome-oriented strategies, as active ETFs gain traction amid rising demand for flexibility and cost efficiency versus traditional passive products.

Day Ahead:

Data → US non-farm payrolls. Earnings → n/a

Happy Easter🐰, see you next week.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Global markets extended their risk-on rebound, with equities rallying for a second consecutive session on growing optimism that the conflict with Iran may be nearing an end. The so-called “Hormuz Hope” rally gained traction as oil prices continued to decline, reflecting easing fears around supply disruptions despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely constrained. Sentiment was further supported by comments from Iran’s president, Pezeshkian, signalling openness to de-escalation, alongside expectations that Trump will outline a potential timeline for ending the war in a rare primetime address later tonight (at 9 PM ET).

The positive tone was broad-based across regions. European equities advanced between 2% and 3%, while Asian markets posted outsized gains, with Japan and South Korea rising as much as 5% and 8%, respectively. On Wall Street, the rally was reinforced by strong sentiment spillovers, including renewed enthusiasm around AI after SpaceX confidentially filed for what could become one of the largest IPOs in history, adding a further tailwind to risk appetite.

Across other asset classes, moves were more contained. Bond markets were largely unchanged, suggesting limited repricing of the macro outlook despite the equity surge. In FX, the $ edged slightly lower, with the DXY Index slipping back below the 100 level and remaining broadly flat over the past week.

Overall, markets are increasingly pricing a de-escalation scenario, though much hinges on upcoming political developments and confirmation that diplomatic signals translate into concrete actions.

Notable mover: Nike (mcap $66bn) plunged 15.5% today to an 11-year low following yesterday evening’s earnings release. Despite an EPS beat, flat revenues and a weak outlook overshadowed results. China remains the key drag, with sales down 11% and expected to fall ~20% next quarter, while management flagged geopolitical risks and rising oil prices as headwinds. Guidance points to low-single-digit revenue declines and flat earnings, reinforcing that Nike’s turnaround remains slow and lacking near-term catalysts.

Business News: → Anthropic (unlisted), scrambled to contain an accidental leak of hundreds of thousands of lines of source code and internal instructions for its Claude AI agent, exposing product architecture and unreleased features to competitors despite no user data being compromised.

Economics: → US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 (in line with expectations), marking the strongest expansion since mid-2022 and a third consecutive month above 50. Activity remains in steady expansion, but the details were mixed, new orders softened, and employment stayed weak, while a sharp rise in input prices highlights building inflation pressures.

→ US retail sales rose +0.6% MoM and +3.8% YoY, indicating a solid rebound from prior softness. Consumer demand remains resilient on a yearly basis, though rising fuel costs pose a potential headwind.

Deals: → KKR plans to take Japan’s Taiyo Holdings (mcap $3.3bn) private in a ~$3.2bn deal via a tender offer, backed by major shareholders including DIC, Kowa and Oasis. Taiyo is a leading maker of solder resist (insulation materials for semiconductor circuit boards), positioning the deal as a bet on chip supply chain materials with support from the founding family reinvesting alongside KKR.

→ In private markets, Carlyle Group agreed to acquire a controlling stake in privately held MAI Capital Management, valuing the business at over $2.8bn. The deal builds on an existing relationship and aims to fund MAI’s expansion in integrated advisory services, reflecting strong structural demand for scaled wealth platforms serving high-net-worth clients.

→ Intel (mcap $242bn) will acquire Apollo’s 49% stake in its Ireland Fab 34 facility for $14.2bn, fully consolidating the chip manufacturing asset. The deal, funded with cash and ~$6.5bn of new debt, unwinds Apollo’s 2024 financing and is expected to support Intel’s earnings and credit profile from 2027. Intel shares rallied 9% today and accumulated a 30% return YTD.

→ In IPOs, reusable rocket and space exploration company SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO that could raise up to $75bn, implying a valuation well north of $200bn, with listing timing likely later this year pending SEC review.

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Day Ahead:

Data → US initial (wkly) jobless claims, balance of trade; Switzerland inflation.

Earnings → n/a

See you tomorrow.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Risk assets staged a sharp reversal into risk-on mode, with equities and bonds rallying strongly as geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing. The shift in sentiment was driven by signals from Tehran indicating openness to negotiations, alongside comments from Trump suggesting the conflict may not last much longer and that Iran has been “essentially decimated”. Additional support came from US defence officials who noted a marked decline in Iranian projectile activity, reinforcing the narrative that the conflict may be approaching a turning point.

Markets reacted decisively: oil prices fell, with Brent crude down 3.2% on the day, while equities posted a strong comeback. Safe-haven and alternative assets were mixed, with gold, silver, and cryptos firmer, reflecting residual uncertainty even as broader risk appetite improved. The tone across markets was one of relief rather than full conviction, with positioning adjusting rapidly to a potentially shorter conflict horizon.

Despite today’s pullback, the energy backdrop remains extremely tight. Brent crude is still up ~70% this quarter, marking its largest quarterly gain since the 1991 Gulf War. In the US, gasoline prices have surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time since Aug 2022, while European officials continue to warn of ongoing supply disruptions, urging conservation amid the risk of prolonged stress in global energy markets.

The key near-term focus is whether diplomatic signals translate into tangible de-escalation. While markets are increasingly pricing a potential endgame scenario, policymakers caution that the coming days will be decisive, leaving a gap between improving sentiment and still-fragile fundamentals in energy and geopolitics.

Business News: → OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, raised $122bn mainly from Amazon, Nvidia and Softbank at an $852bn post-money valuation. Its previous round was a year ago when it raised $40bn at $300bn.

→ French AI start-up Mistral, which develops frontier AI models, raised $830mn in debt to fund Nvidia-powered data centres across Europe, amid growing demand for sovereign AI alternatives to US tech giants. The move reflects a broader trend of heavy debt-funded AI infrastructure build-out, despite rising concerns over uncertain returns and potential oversupply. The financing was arranged mostly by BNP, Credit Agricole, HSBC and MUFG as private loan.

Economics: → €-zone inflation rose to 2.5% YoY from 1.9% a month earlier, while core inflation eased slightly and came in below expectations, signaling limited underlying price pressure. The increase was primarily driven by energy prices, while underlying inflation remained contained, implying limited immediate pressure on the ECB, though second-round effects into core remain a key risk.

→ Canada GDP was slightly better than expected but still weak, reinforcing a soft growth backdrop.

→ US JOLTs job openings showed further labor market cooling (below estimates), not a shock but directionally negative.

Deals: → In the biotech industry, Biogen (mcap $26bn) will acquire Apellis Pharmaceuticals (mcap $5bn), a commercial-stage biopharma mainly targeting rare diseases and ophthalmology, for $5.6bn, paying $41/share in cash plus a Contingent Value Right tied to Syfovre sales. The deal strengthens Biogen’s immunology and rare-disease pipeline, adding Syfovre and Empaveli (~$689m combined 2025 sales). Apellis shares more than doubled today.

→ Eli Lilly & Co (mcap $820bn) will acquire UK-based Centessa Pharmaceuticals Plc (mcap $5.8bn) in a deal worth up to $7.8bn, as it expands beyond metabolic drugs into sleep disorders. The acquisition centers on orexin-targeting therapies, with lead drug cleminorexton in mid-stage trials for narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia, though the modest premium may invite competing bids. Centessa shares jumped 45% on Nasdaq today and are 174% higher the the LTM.

→ Unilever will combine its food division with McCormick & Co (mcap $13bn) in a $66bn deal, creating a global food group with $20bn in revenues and a 65/35 ownership split. Unilever will receive $15.7bn in cash to fund buybacks and pivot toward beauty/personal care, while initial market reaction was negative with both stocks declining. McCormick’s shares fell 6% and are 26% lower YTD.

Day Ahead:

Data → US ISM Manufacturing PMI, retail sales; Korea and Indonesia inflation; Switzerland retail sales. Earnings → n/a.

See you tomorrow.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Another weak session to start the week, driven by higher oil prices, conflicting signals on the Middle East conflict and cautious messaging from central banks. WTI oil rose ~5% on the day, extending its weekly rally to +18%, as Trump oscillated between signaling diplomatic progress with Iran and renewing threats of strikes on energy infrastructure, keeping markets on edge. Equities on Wall Street declined globally, with the Nasdaq Composite now firmly in correction territory, while IT and industrials led losses and financials outperformed.

Within tech, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped 4% on the day, down ~8% over the past week and 12% over the past month, with memory names under heavy pressure (Micron Tech -10%, Western Digital -9%).

Fixed income saw a notable reversal, with Treasury yields across the 2 to 10-year segment falling 8 bp following remarks from Jerome Powell, supporting a bond rally as investors reassessed the policy outlook.

Overall, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with oil acting as the key transmission channel into inflation expectations, rates, and broader risk sentiment.

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Central Banks: → In Fed talk today, Jerome Powell struck a measured tone, reiterating a “wait-and-see” approach as inflation remains above target while the central bank assesses the impact of geopolitical shocks, particularly oil. He noted that tariffs would likely result in a one-off price bump and emphasised that the Federal Reserve has limited control over supply-driven inflation, adding that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

Markets reacted with a bond rally, as traders reassessed the policy path, with year-end futures pricing shifting sharply; the implied probability of a rate hike by December fell from 22% on Friday to ~4% today, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain on hold unless inflation re-accelerates materially.

Economics: → Germany’s preliminary CPI for March came in at +1.1% MoM and +2.7% YoY, with the monthly jump largely reflecting energy-related pressures, while the annual rate remains moderately above the ECB’s target. In terms of trend, inflation is broadly stabilising with a slight upward bias after prior easing, suggesting disinflation has slowed. The overall signal is mixed: while not alarming, the data points to sticky price pressures, particularly from energy, which may keep the European Central Bank cautious on the pace of rate cuts.

Business News: → Government-controlled mortgage providers Fannie Mae (mcap $8bn) and Freddie Mac (mcap $4bn) stocks surged ~50% today, following bullish comments from investor Bill Ackman (Pershing Square Capital), who described the mortgage giants as “stupidly cheap” and possessing massive “10x” upside potential. The rally was driven by renewed investor optimism regarding a potential end to government control, despite the stocks remaining well below previous highs.

Deals: → Houston-based Sysco Corp (mcap $33bn), the biggest US food distributor to restaurants, hospitals and schools, has agreed to acquire privately-owned Jetro Restaurant Depot, based in NY, for ~$29bn (incl. debt; $21.6bn cash + stock), marking a major expansion into the cash-and-carry segment. The deal targets higher-margin, resilient small-business customers, strengthening Sysco’s positioning across economic cycles and broadening its local distribution footprint. Sysco shares plunged 15% today and are ~6% lower YTD.

→ Swiss food giant Nestlé SA (mcap $250bn) is advancing the sale of a 50% stake in its European water division (incl. Perrier and San Pellegrino), with bids from KKR, Clayton Dubilier & Rice and PAI Partners valuing the unit at €5bn. The deal is part of Nestlé’s broader portfolio overhaul, as it pivots toward core segments and taps private equity to monetize non-core assets.

→ In private markets, Apollo is nearing a ~$10bn deal to acquire Atlantic Aviation from KKR, in partnership with Singapore’s GIC, with KKR expected to retain a minority stake. The transaction highlights continued strong demand for infrastructure-like assets, with Atlantic Aviation, a large US network of private jet service bases, offering stable, cash-generative exposure to business aviation.

Day Ahead:

Data → €-zone, France, Italy inflation; Canada GDP; US Jolts openings; Germany retail sales.
Earnings → Nike (PM). See you tomorrow.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Share US Markets Daily

Good evening,

Risk assets sold off sharply today as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, with fading hopes for a ceasefire driving a broad risk-off move across markets. Brent surged more than 5% to $107.50, as conflicting signals between Trump and Iran, alongside an approaching deadline for a potential deal, deepened uncertainty and kept markets on edge.

Equities fell globally, with US tech leading losses: the “Magnificent 7” dropped over 3%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged nearly 5%, highlighting the sensitivity of growth assets to rising rates and geopolitical risk.

Fixed income also came under pressure, with the 2-year Treasury yield climbing back toward 4%, its highest level since June, reflecting a sharp repricing of inflation and rate expectations as higher oil prices feed through the macro-outlook. Overall, the session was defined by broad-based declines across equities, bonds, precious metals and cryptos, underscoring a market driven by uncertainty, policy risk, and energy-driven inflation fears.

Further highlighting liquidity pressures in private funds, UBS has gated withdrawals from its €400mn Euroinvest real estate fund for up to three years, citing insufficient liquidity to meet rising redemption requests. The move highlights growing stress in property funds as investors pull capital amid deteriorating economic conditions linked to geopolitical tensions.

Monetary Policy: → Banco de México cut its policy rate by 25bp to 6.75%, the lowest level in four years, surprising markets that were expecting a hold and resuming its easing cycle despite inflation still running above target. The move signals a greater focus on weakening growth and external risks, even as it raises questions about the inflation outlook and policy credibility.

→ South African Reserve Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75%, in line with expectations, as rising energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions are seen pushing inflation higher. The hold reflects a more cautious stance, with policymakers prioritising inflation risks over growth and signalling a likely pause in the easing cycle amid global uncertainty.

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Deals: → Equitable (mcap $11bn) and Corebridge Financial (mcap $12bn) are set to merge in an all-stock deal, creating a $22bn retirement, asset and wealth management group with greater scale. The tie-up reflects ongoing consolidation in insurance-linked asset management, as firms seek lower cost of capital and growth via managing insurer balance sheets.

→ German household goods company Henkel (mcap €27bn) has agreed to acquire Nasdaq-listed Olaplex Holdings (mcap $1.3bn) for $1.4bn ($2.06/share, ~55% premium), continuing its acquisition push in beauty. Olaplex makes premium haircare products focused on repairing and strengthening damaged hair. The deal comes after Olaplex’s post-IPO decline, with Henkel targeting a turnaround opportunity amid weaker sales and rising competition. Olaplex shares jumped 51% on Thursday. It was listed in 2021 at $21.

→ In debt markets, New York City (rated Aa/Aa2) has scaled back a planned “mega” municipal bond issuance amid volatile market conditions, with the deal reportedly involving tax-exempt municipal debt used to fund city capital projects (infrastructure, housing, etc.). The transaction was initially expected to be one of the city’s largest but was downsized due to weak demand and rising yields, highlighting how recent market turmoil is tightening financing conditions even for high-grade public issuers. Moody’s and Fitch issued a negative outlook for the Big Apple’s debt a few days ago.

→ In IPOs, Greenland Energy Company (GLND) began trading on Nasdaq today following a $215mn SPAC merger with Pelican Acquisition Corp, Greenland Exploration Limited, and March GL. The company focuses on developing large oil and gas resources in East Greenland’s Jameson Land Basin.

Day Ahead:

Data → US Michigan consumer sentiment, UK retail sales, Spain inflation.

Earnings → PetroChina and major Chinese banks.

See you tomorrow.

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Good evening,

Markets remain highly reactive this Wednesday, with sentiment still dominated by the evolving conflict in the Middle East. After several sessions of sharp swings, risk assets found some footing as crude, particularly Brent, pulled back on tentative hopes of a de-escalation, even as the situation on the ground remains fluid. Headlines point to a fragile mix of diplomacy and escalation risk, with the White House warning of further strikes absent a deal, while Iran continues to reject overtures despite ongoing talks. The result is a market still trading headline-to-headline, with volatility elevated across asset classes.

At the core of the current macro dynamic is oil, and its direct transmission into inflation and rate expectations. The recent spike and subsequent pullback in energy prices have been the key drivers behind shifting views on the policy path of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Traders are effectively toggling between two scenarios: further escalation pushing oil higher and delaying rate cuts, versus a credible ceasefire easing inflation pressures and allowing for policy normalisation. Until there is greater clarity on the geopolitical front, markets are likely to remain unstable, with oil acting as the primary conduit into broader macro pricing.

Economics: → UK headline CPI inflation rose +0.4% MoM and +3.0% YoY, broadly stable and in line with expectations. Core CPI printed at 3.2% YoY (vs 3.1% prior and expected), indicating a slight upside surprise and suggesting underlying inflation pressures are not easing further. Overall, the data points to sticky core inflation, likely reinforcing a cautious stance from the Bank of England on the timing of rate cuts.

→ The US reported a Q4’25 current account deficit of -$191bn, narrower than expected and a marked improvement from -$239bn in Q3. The sharp contraction suggests a meaningful reduction in external imbalances, likely reflecting stronger net exports and/or income flows into year-end.

Business news: → Volkswagen (mcap €45bn) is in talks with Israel’s state-owned Rafael Advanced Defense Systems to repurpose a German plant for Iron Dome components, highlighting a potential shift from autos to defence manufacturing amid weak car demand.

Corporate Deals: → In the US pharma sector, Merck & Co. (mcap $294bn) has agreed to acquire Terns Pharmaceuticals (mcap $5.7bn) for ~$5.7bn (or $53/share), gaining a promising experimental leukaemia treatment to strengthen its oncology pipeline. The deal reflects Merck’s push to offset the upcoming patent expiry of Keytruda in 2028, securing future growth through new cancer therapies. Terns shares gained 6% today and are +31% YTD.

→ In private markets, KKR and Global Infrastructure Partners (owned by BlackRock) are among bidders for French telecom infrastructure company XpFibre, with offers valuing the business at €6–8bn as Patrick Drahi explores asset sales. The process is part of efforts to reduce debt across Altice (>€50bn), highlighting continued investor appetite for core infrastructure assets despite tighter financing conditions.

→ Also, KKR has agreed to acquire retail bakery chain Nothing Bundt Cakes from Roark Capital for over $2bn (incl. debt), continuing PE interest in franchised, cash-flow stable consumer brands. The deal underscores the appeal of asset-light franchise models, with Nothing Bundt Cakes, founded in 1997 and now scaled to hundreds of locations, offering predictable revenues and expansion potential.

→ In IPOs, SpaceX is reportedly targeting up to $75bn in its IPO, which would make it the largest public offering ever and imply a valuation potentially exceeding $1.7tn. The deal underscores massive investor demand for space and satellite infrastructure (driven by Starlink) but would also mark a major shift toward greater transparency and public market scrutiny for one of the world’s most valuable private companies. SEC filing could happen as soon as this week or next, and listing is targeted around June 2026.

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Day Ahead:

Data → US weekly jobless claims.

Monetary Policy → Mexico (unch at 7% exp), South Africa (unch at 6.75% exp).

Earnings → CNOOC, Bank of China.

See you tomorrow.

📈Today’s performance tables.

Copyright © 2026 Succinct.

All rights reserved. This publication contains proprietary content and is intended solely for the recipient’s personal use. Disclaimer: Our service is for informational purposes only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Subscribe now

Copyright © 2026 Succinct.

📈Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Risk assets are trading under pressure as geopolitical tensions re-escalate in the Middle East, with oil prices moving back above $100 following a new wave of Iranian strikes targeting Israel and Gulf countries. The conflict continues to intensify despite tentative diplomatic signals, with the Pentagon announcing the deployment of 3,000 additional troops to the region. At the same time, Iran has warned that “non-hostile vessels” transiting the Strait of Hormuz must coordinate with its authorities, raising renewed concerns over energy supply disruptions through one of the world’s most critical chokepoints. On the political front, Donald Trump indicated that the US is engaging in discussions with Iran, suggesting that both sides may be open to a deal, though markets are clearly focused on near-term escalation risks.

Equities are broadly lower on Tuesday while rates continue to reprice higher. US Treasury yields have risen sharply, up 25bp across the curve over the past week and ~40bp over the past month, reflecting a combination of inflation concerns driven by higher energy prices and shifting expectations around monetary policy. Notably, futures markets are now pricing in a 6% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s April meeting, compared to 0% just a week ago, although still low in absolute terms.

At the same time, stress is building in private credit markets, where liquidity dynamics are deteriorating as investors increasingly seek to exit. Apollo has moved to limit redemptions from its Debt Solutions BDC after receiving withdrawal requests totalling $1.6bn, or 11% of net assets, more than double the fund’s 5% quarterly redemption cap. The firm ultimately fulfilled just under half of those requests. Similarly, Ares Management capped withdrawals from its $11bn Strategic Income Fund at 5%, after redemptions surged to over 11% in Q1, highlighting a broader exodus among wealthy investors from the asset class. Other large managers, including Morgan Stanley and BlackRock, have taken comparable steps to manage outflows.

Importantly, this stress in private credit has not yet transferred over into public markets. US high yield spreads, as measured by the BofA US High Yield Index, are currently at +319bp, slightly above the 12-month average but still well below the +461bp levels reached during last year’s tariffs-related volatility. This suggests that, for now, concerns around liquidity and redemption pressures remain largely contained within private markets (middle markets direct lending), with listed junk bonds showing limited signs of contagion.

Economics: → PMIs across the US, UK and €-zone showed modest softening in activity with little change vs prior months, confirming a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp deterioration, with manufacturing stabilising but services losing momentum. The surveys highlighted a clear stagflation signal, rising input costs driven by energy alongside weakening demand, but markets largely ignored the data as geopolitics and war headlines continue to dominate price action.

Corporate Deals: → Apollo will acquire Nippon Sheet Glass (mcap $305mn) in a ~$3.7bn EV deal, its largest PE investment in Japan, combining a ¥165bn ($1.05bn) equity injection with a ¥140bn debt-for-equity swap by lenders. The transaction recapitalises Nippon Sheet Glass, easing interest burden and strengthening its balance sheet to support long-term growth. Nippon shares jumped 20% on Tuesday.

→ Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is reportedly preparing a potential takeover bid for Jefferies Financial Group (mcap $8.5bn), with Jefferies shares up ~3% on the news. The Japanese lender, which already holds a ~4.5% stake via Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, could act opportunistically as Jefferies stock remains ~34% lower YTD amid concerns over its private credit exposure.

→ Spanish beauty group Puig Brands (mcap €17bn) shares jumped ~13% after confirming merger talks with New York-based Estée Lauder ($26bn) over a potential tie-up that could create a $40bn+ beauty and fashion group. Both companies said discussions are ongoing with no agreement yet. Still, a combination would bring together portfolios including Charlotte Tilbury, Carolina Herrera, Tom Ford Beauty and Clinique, with over $20bn in combined annual sales. Puig shares gained 14% while Lauder’s fell 10% today.

Day Ahead:

Data → UK inflation, US imp/exp prices, current account. Earnings → Cintas, PDD Holdings, China Life.

See you tomorrow.

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Copyright © 2026 Succinct.

All rights reserved. This publication contains proprietary content and is intended solely for the recipient’s personal use. Disclaimer: Our service is for informational purposes only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Subscribe now

Copyright © 2026 Succinct.