📈 Today’s performance tables. These are not emailed.

Good evening,

Wall Street stocks surged to fresh record highs on Friday as investors largely looked past conflicting geopolitical headlines from the Gulf and focused instead on resilient economic data and renewed AI momentum. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000, beating expectations, while unemployment held at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the labour market remains healthy enough to keep the Fed on hold as inflation concerns persist.

The rally gained further momentum after reports that Apple and Intel reached a chip supply agreement, sending Intel up 14% to a record high and lifting the broader IT sector 3.4% on the day and 8.4% for the week. Meanwhile, energy (-5%) and utilities (-4%) lagged this week as crude oil ended down 7%, while Treasury yields were little changed and the $ Index weakened modestly, mainly against the € and £.

Economics: → US nonfarm payrolls rose 115k in April, comfortably beating expectations, while March hiring reached 185k, marking the strongest two-month job gain since 2024. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, reflecting continued labour-market resilience despite broader macro uncertainty. The data also showed the recent energy shock has yet to materially hit hiring, with job gains spread across healthcare, retail, transportation and warehousing, while federal government and tech employment declined. Markets interpreted the report as reassuring: bond yields moved lower, and equities gained, reflecting relief that growth remains intact without signs of a sharp employment-market deterioration.

Earnings: → Network equipment firm Ubiquiti Inc. (mcap $50bn) fell 9% after missing Wall Street expectations on both revenue ($788mn vs. $814mn exp) and EPS ($3.86 vs. $4.29), despite posting solid YoY growth. While results topped the company’s own guidance, investors likely focused on the consensus miss after the stock’s sharp rally this year (+50% YTD).

→ Cloud services provider Cloudflare (mcap $70bn) shares plunged 24%, sharply underperforming a broader tech rally, after the company announced plans to cut 20% of its workforce (1,100 jobs) as part of an AI-driven restructuring. The selloff overshadowed an otherwise strong earnings report (yday), where Cloudflare beat both revenue and profit estimates with sales rising 34% YoY, as investors focused on concerns around future growth and execution.

→ In European banks, Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo beat expectations, posting a record €2.7bn net profit, helped by strong fees and trading income, but shares slipped 2% after management kept full-year guidance unchanged rather than raising it after a strong quarter.

→ Germany’s Commerzbank also delivered solid results (Q1 net profit +9% YoY to €913mn) and even raised full-year guidance, but shares still fell 4% as investors focused on its plan to cut 3,000 jobs by 2030 and ongoing uncertainty around UniCredit’s takeover pressure.

Central Banks: → The overall Fed tone from policymakers’ speeches today remained cautious-to-hawkish, reinforcing a higher-for-longer and ‘no rush to cut’ narrative after the stronger jobs report. Goolsbee said the Fed needs clearer evidence that inflation is moving back toward 2% before cutting again and warned that AI-driven productivity gains could actually fuel demand (inflation) if spending accelerates too quickly. Bowman and Daly also emphasised patience amid sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, while the strong payrolls report further reduced pressure for near-term easing.

Corporate Deals: → In private markets, adults online platform OnlyFans agreed to sell a 16% minority stake to US-based Architect Capital for $535mn, valuing the creator platform at $3.15bn. The deal follows months of negotiations and comes after the March death of owner Leonid Radvinsky, with proceeds expected to support creator tools and payment infrastructure improvements.

→ In IPOs, Odyssey Therapeutics (ODTX), a Boston-based clinical-stage biotech developing treatments for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, priced its IPO at $18/share, the top of its marketed range, raising $304mn and valuing the company at ~$800mn. Shares received a lukewarm reception, slipping 9% in their Nasdaq debut.

→ Enhanced Group (ENHA) began trading today on the NYSE after completing its merger with SPAC A Paradise Acquisition Corp. (formerly Nasdaq-listed: APAD). The company is behind the controversial Enhanced Games, a Las Vegas-based sports event that allows performance-enhancing drugs under medical supervision and also operates a direct-to-consumer health/performance products platform. The transaction valued Enhanced at $1.2bn enterprise value.

Week Ahead:

Data → This weekend: China inflation CPI & PPI, trade balance. Next week: US, Brazil and India inflation; UK GDP; US retail sales.

Earnings → Constellation Energy, Tencent, Siemens, Applied Materials, MUFG, Mizuho.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

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Good evening,

Geopolitics remained the key driver of sentiment on Thursday as doubts over an imminent US-Iran deal, alongside renewed Israeli strikes in Lebanon, kept investors cautious. US equities closed lower, with small- and mid-cap stocks leading declines, while European markets also ended notably weaker ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.

Elsewhere, markets were relatively calm: currencies, bond yields and crude oil saw limited moves, while cocoa was the standout commodity mover, plunging ~7% as improving harvest prospects in the Ivory Coast, Ghana and Brazil eased supply concerns. Separately, the IMF warned that advanced AI models could pose systemic financial risks through potential “correlated failures” and cyber shocks.

Korea’s Samsung Electronics surpassed a $1tn market value, becoming only the second East Asian company after Taiwan’s TSMC to reach the milestone, as investors continue piling into AI-linked semiconductor stocks. Shares jumped 14% to a record high, while SK Hynix gained over 10%, fueled by surging demand for high-bandwidth memory chips used in AI infrastructure.

Earnings: → Shell Plc (mcap £174bn) posted $6.9bn in adjusted earnings and $17.2bn in operating cash flow in Q1, with CEO Sawan citing “unprecedented disruption in global energy markets.” The oil major also announced another $3bn share buyback, underscoring resilient cash generation despite volatile commodity prices. Shares fell 3% today but remain 14% higher YTD.

Economics: → Germany’s factory orders rose 5.0% MoM in March, well above expectations and rebounding sharply from the prior month, signalling improved momentum in the country’s industrial sector. The upside surprise may ease concerns over manufacturing weakness, though broader sentiment remains cautious given soft European growth and trade uncertainty.

→ €-zone retail sales fell 0.1% MoM in March, slightly better than forecasts but marking a third consecutive monthly decline, pointing to continued weakness in consumer demand. The data reinforces concerns that household spending remains soft despite easing inflation and lower interest rates across Europe.

Monetary Policy: → Banco de México cut its benchmark rate by 25bp to 6.50%, in line with expectations and the lowest level in four years, extending its easing cycle despite persistent inflation pressures. Policymakers said the balance of inflation risks remains skewed to the upside, signalling a cautious path for future rate cuts.

Deals: → In the biotech sector, Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (mcap $3.8bn), a rare disease drugmaker, agreed to be acquired by privately held Angelini Pharma in a $4.1bn all-cash deal. Angelini will pay $31.50/share, a 21% premium and an all-time high for Catalyst, to expand its rare-disease platform by combining Catalyst’s commercial portfolio with its own neuroscience expertise.

→ Roche Holding (mcap $328bn) agreed to acquire US-based PathAI (private) for up to $1.05bn, expanding its diagnostics business with AI-powered pathology tools. The deal builds on a partnership launched in 2021 and aims to improve lab efficiency while accelerating drug discovery and clinical development.

→ In IPO’s, Suja Life, an Oceanside, California-based maker of organic juices, wellness shots and functional sodas, fell 14% in its Nasdaq debut after pricing its IPO at $21 per share, the low end of its marketed range, raising $187mn. The weak debut valued the company at roughly $700mn, highlighting continued investor selectivity toward consumer IPOs despite a reopening issuance market.

→ HawkEye 360, a Virginia-based space intelligence company, was priced at $26 (top of its range), raising $416mn, initially valuing the company at $2.5bn. Shares then jumped about 30% in their NYSE debut, pushing its market value closer to $3.2bn. HawkEye operates a constellation of 30+ satellites that track radio-frequency emissions globally for US defence and intelligence agencies, another sign that defence/space-tech IPOs remain one of the hottest pockets of the market right now.

Day Ahead:

Data → US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg earnings; Germany trade; Spain industrial production.

Earnings → Intesa Sanpaolo (Italy), Commerzbank (Germany), Ubiquiti Networks (US).

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Risk assets pushed to fresh record highs on Wednesday as investors leaned into strong corporate earnings and easing geopolitical fears. Oil prices fell sharply (-7%) on renewed hopes of a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after reports that both sides are working on a framework to restart talks next week. Despite oil’s pullback, American drivers saw no relief: average gasoline prices rose to $4.54/gallon, up from under $3 before the war began.

Equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite closing at new highs as AI enthusiasm remained the market’s dominant theme, led by another strong gain in Intel (+4%) and a sharp post-earnings rally in AMD (+19%). Meanwhile, bond yields drifted lower despite hawkish comments from the Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee, as markets remained focused on earnings momentum and improving sentiment around the Middle East.

Earnings: → Sentiment remained strong today, with Uber, Disney, AppLovin and CVS Health all rallying 7 to 8% after mostly delivering beats on earnings & revenue and, more importantly, solid forward guidance. The common theme: investors rewarded companies showing resilient consumer demand, improving margins, and stronger-than-feared outlooks, reinforcing the view that corporate fundamentals remain healthy despite macro and geopolitical volatility.

Economics: → US private employers added 109,000 jobs in the latest ADP National Employment Report, the strongest reading since January 2025, suggesting the labour market remains resilient despite signs of broader economic cooling.

Deals: → In the music sector, Sony Music Group is in advanced talks to acquire Recognition Music Group from Blackstone for $3.5–4bn, in what would be one of the largest music catalogue deals ever. The portfolio includes rights tied to artists such as Justin Bieber and Neil Young, and while rival bidders reportedly emerged, no final agreement has been announced yet.

→ German pharmaceutical-and-agricultural group Bayer agreed to acquire privately held Perfuse Therapeutics, a California-based eye-drug specialist that is developing a potential glaucoma treatment, in the company’s biggest deal in years, worth up to $2.45bn.

→ In credit markets, pharma giant Eli Lilly is reportedly raising $9bn through a multi-tranche bond sale, with proceeds expected to help fund its recent deal spree and manufacturing expansion. Lilly has already spent aggressively on acquisitions this year, including deals for Centessa Pharmaceuticals and Kelonia Therapeutics, while also committing billions to expand obesity-drug manufacturing capacity for blockbuster treatments like Zepbound and Mounjaro.

Day Ahead:

Central Banks → Mexico rate decision. Data → €-zone retail sales, US jobless claims, Germany factory orders, Mexico inflation. Earnings → McDonald’s, Shell, Gilead S, Airbnb, Monster B.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Risk assets rebounded on Tuesday as geopolitical fears eased and investors shifted their focus back to corporate earnings. Oil prices fell roughly 4%, reversing part of Monday’s sharp rally, as the fragile US-Iran truce appeared to hold despite continued clashes and competing efforts to control shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Equities moved higher, led by technology stocks as Intel surged on reports that Apple is exploring alternative chip manufacturing partners, while AMD extended gains after strong earnings were released after the close. The broader Mag-7 ended flat, while currency and rates markets were largely unchanged as traders remained focused on Middle East headlines and earnings season.

Intel shares surged 13% to an all-time high after a Bloomberg report said Apple has opened early talks with Intel and another chipmaker (Samsung) about manufacturing processors, as Apple looks to reduce its heavy reliance on Taiwan’s TSMC. Investors viewed the news as a potentially major win for Intel’s foundry business, which has struggled to land large external customers, and an Apple contract would significantly boost credibility for its manufacturing turnaround strategy.

Earnings: → Advanced Micro Devices (mcap $580bn) reported strong Q1 results after the bell, with EPS of $1.37 (+43% YoY) and revenue rising 38% YoY, both ahead of estimates, while operating margin reached 25%. Shares jumped 6% in extended trading after already closing nearly 4% higher during the regular session, as investors welcomed continued AI-driven growth momentum.

→ Abroad, earnings reactions were harsh despite decent headline numbers. HSBC (mcap $300bn) fell 6% in London after reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 profit, hurt by a surprise $400mn loss tied to private credit exposure linked to the collapse of Market Financial Solutions, while management also raised expected credit-loss guidance amid macro uncertainty. Investors were also disappointed by softer wealth-management growth versus peers.

→ Shopify (mcap $140bn) plunged 15% despite beating on revenue and EPS, as investors focused on lukewarm Q2 guidance, margin concerns, and rising AI-related operating expenses. Revenue grew 34% YoY to $3.17bn, but expectations had moved even higher into the print. Shares are 33% lower YTD.

Monetary Policy: → The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25bp to 4.35% as expected, marking its third consecutive rate hike this year in an 8-1 vote, as policymakers responded to still-elevated 4.6% inflation and rising energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. The RBA maintained a hawkish tone, warning that further tightening may be needed if inflation remains persistent.

Economics: → US March trade data shows exports up 2.0% YoY to $321bn and imports up 2.3% YoY to $381bn, widening the goods/services deficit to $60.3B (+4.4% YoY). Petroleum was a key driver on the export side amid higher oil prices.

→ US JOLTS job openings fell slightly to 6.86mn matching forecasts with no major market impact.

Deals: → In the Australian mining sector, Regis Resources (mcap $3.7bn) agreed to acquire Vault Minerals (mcap $3.4bn) in an all-stock deal that will create Australia’s third-largest ASX-listed pure-play gold producer, with a combined valuation of $7.7 bn. The merged company is expected to produce 700,000+ ounces of gold annually and will own five operating gold mines, giving it greater scale at a time when elevated gold prices are driving consolidation across the sector. Regis shares fell 6% whole Vault rose 3% today.

→ Swedish buyout firm EQT raised its takeover offer for UK-based business services company Intertek Group (mcap £7.8bn) to £8.9bn, offering shareholders £58/share in cash after previous bids of £51.50 and £54 were rejected. Intertek Group said it is reviewing the latest proposal. Shares rose 56% to £51, while RBC upgraded the stock to outperform, signalling markets see a higher probability of a deal.

→ GameStop (mcap $10.8bn) drew attention after CEO Ryan Cohen struggled in an interview to clearly explain how the company would finance its unsolicited $56bn bid for eBay (mcap $46bn), a target far larger than GameStop itself. Cohen cited a $20bn credit line from TD Bank but offered limited detail on how the remaining funding gap ($16bn) would be addressed. eBay shares fell ~4%, reversing the prior session’s rally as markets questioned the credibility of the proposal.

Day Ahead:

Data → US ADP employment change.

Earnings → Realty Income, AppLovin, Disney, Uber, CVS, Marriott.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Markets opened the week in risk-off mode after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply over the weekend, raising fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The fragile four-week ceasefire between the US and Iran appears to be unravelling. US forces reportedly intercepted Iranian drones, missiles, and fast boats while escorting two US-flagged vessels through Hormuz, while attacks also struck commercial ships and a key oil hub in the UAE.

In a Monday post, Trump said Iran had fired at “unrelated nations,” including a South Korean cargo ship, adding that US forces had destroyed seven Iranian “fast boats.” Conflicting headlines continue to emerge from the Gulf, but the direction of travel is clear: the situation has materially deteriorated.

Markets reacted swiftly. Brent crude surged over 5%, briefly trading around $114, as investors priced in higher supply disruption risk. Treasuries also sold off, with the 2-year yield rising 6bp to a six-week high, while equities moved lower globally.

European stocks underperformed after Trump separately announced tariffs on EU autos would rise to 25% from 15%, pressuring automakers. On Wall Street, losses were more contained, though the Dow fell 1%, while the VIX Index climbed to 18.3%, up from a three-month low but still well below the peak levels seen earlier this year.

For now, markets are treating this as a geopolitical risk shock rather than a systemic event, but that could change quickly if energy infrastructure or shipping flows face sustained disruption.

Earnings: → Palantir Technologies (mcap $350bn) reported after the close, with record Q1 revenue and profit that beat analyst estimates, driven by surging sales to commercial clients and the US government sector. Revenue jumped 85% YoY to $1.6bn, with the bulk coming from the US. Adjusted earnings per share rose over 150% YoY ($876mn net profit, 54% margin). It raised FY sales guidance by 6% to ~$7.6bn. Shares gained 1.3% during regular hours and just 0.8% in extended trading.

Economics: → It was a light start to the week on the data front. US factory orders rose 1.5% MoM in March, well above the 0.5% consensus and up from a revised 0.3% gain in February, while orders increased 3.7% YoY, the strongest monthly rise since November. The report points to improving manufacturing momentum, driven largely by surging demand for electronics and AI-related equipment, though higher energy costs and supply-chain risks tied to the Middle East remain a growing headwind.

Deals: → GameStop Corp (mcap $11bn) launched an unsolicited $56bn bid for eBay (mcap $49bn), offering $125/share (50% cash, 50% stock), a 20% premium to eBay’s undisturbed price, after quietly building a 5% stake. GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen says the deal would reposition eBay as a stronger rival to Amazon.com, backed by a TD Bank commitment for up to $20bn in debt financing. GameStop shares fell 10% while eBay gained 5% today.

→ Travel services firm Global Business Travel Group (mcap $4.9bn) agreed to be taken private by Long Lake Management in a $6.3bn deal priced at $9.50/share, a roughly 60% premium. American Express (mcap $218bn) will sell its ~30% stake as part of the transaction and expects to receive $1.5bn in proceeds. GBTG shares jumped 57% today.

→ AI company Anthropic is forming a $1.5bn joint venture with Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman, and Goldman to help private-equity-backed companies deploy AI tools. The venture will serve as Anthropic’s consulting/distribution arm, highlighting intensifying competition with OpenAI, which is reportedly exploring a similar structure.

→ Houston-based Fervo Energy launched its US IPO roadshow, targeting a valuation of up to $6.5bn and raising around $1.3bn and a guidance range of $21–24. Fervo operates in the renewable energy / geothermal power sector, using oil-and-gas style horizontal drilling technology to deliver 24/7 carbon-free electricity, benefiting from rising power demand tied to AI data centres.

Day Ahead:

Monetary Policy decisions → Reserve Bank of Australia.

Data → US trade balance, Jolts job openings, new home sales; Korea CPI.

Earnings → AMD, Arista Networks, Pfizer, Shopify, HSBC.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Wall Street stepped back from record highs on Tuesday as a renewed wave of AI scepticism triggered a broad risk-off session ahead of a crucial stretch of Big Tech earnings. Investor sentiment was hit after reports that OpenAI (ChatGPT parent) had missed internal revenue and user targets, reviving concerns that the massive capital spending behind artificial intelligence may not deliver the blockbuster returns markets have priced in.

Technology-linked names led the pullback, with Oracle (-4%), CoreWeave (-6%) and SoftBank (-10%) among the sharpest decliners, while the major indices all finished lower. Attention now turns to results from Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta tomorrow, followed by Apple on Thursday, a run of earnings likely to test the durability of the AI-driven rally. Elsewhere, crude oil rose again, leaving Brent up 12% on the week as supply-risk premiums remained elevated.

In commodity markets, the United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC and OPEC+ next month after nearly 60 years, saying greater independence will help it meet long-term global energy demand following recent capacity expansions. The exit is a significant blow to the cartel, removing roughly 15% of its capacity and raising questions about OPEC cohesion, while potentially aligning the UAE more closely with US calls for lower oil prices.

Earnings: → Most companies broadly met or beat expectations, but with few major surprises, explaining the muted market reaction across names like Visa, T-Mobile US, General Motors and Starbucks. Coca-Cola shares rose ~4% after a clear beat and upgraded full-year outlook, while United Parcel Service fell ~4% despite a profit beat due to weak US volumes and softer demand trends.

Monetary Policy: → Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.75% in a split 6-3 vote, while sharply raising its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% (from 1.9%) and cutting growth to 0.5% (from 1.0%). The BoJ flagged Middle East-driven oil price risks to incomes and profits, suggesting policy remains cautious but with some members already leaning toward further hikes.

Deals: → Private equity firm CVC is evaluating a potential €9bn take-private bid for Nexi Spa (mcap €4.5bn), whose shares have fallen sharply amid fee pressure and fintech competition. Nexi shares have lost 25% in the LTM. To ease political resistance under Italy’s golden power rules, the plan could carve out Nexi’s strategic digital banking unit for a state-backed investor such as Cassa Depositi e Prestiti.

→ German music group BMG and Nashville-based privately held label Concord will merge in a deal valuing the combined group at about $14bn, creating a scaled challenger to the music industry’s big three labels. BMG parent Bertelsmann will pay $1.16bn cash for a 67% stake, with the merged BMG headquartered in Nashville and expected to generate revenues of $2.2 bn this year.

Day Ahead:

Monetary Policy → Fed (unch at 3.75% as exp); BoC (unch at 2.25% exp); Brazil (-25bp to 14.5% exp)

Data → US housing starts, building permits, durable goods; Germany and Spain inflation.

Earnings → Mega-caps: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Qualcomm.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Global markets began the week in relatively calm fashion, with US equities edging to fresh record highs despite a dramatic weekend assassination attempt on President Trump in Washington and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Investors appeared encouraged by further signs of possible Middle East de-escalation, as Iran reportedly floated a proposal to halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to hostilities and relief from US pressure measures.

Crude oil nonetheless climbed roughly 3%, supported by continued supply-risk pricing around Hormuz and reports that major banks, including JPMorgan, raised their oil forecasts. Elsewhere, Treasury yields moved modestly higher, the dollar was little changed, and FX markets were broadly quiet. In Washington, the DOJ’s decision to end its probe into Fed Chair Powell also helped clear the path for Kevin Warsh to succeed him next month, with Powell’s future board role now the remaining policy wildcard.

→ Canadian PM Mark Carney launched the CAD25bn ($18bn) Canada Strong Fund, the country’s first federal sovereign wealth fund, to co-finance strategic infrastructure and national projects. The move aims to boost growth, attract private capital, and strengthen Canada’s economy amid U.S. tariff pressure.

Earnings: → Monday was a quiet day for corporate results. Verizon Comm (mcap $198bn) rose 1.5% after reporting EPS above estimates, unexpected positive postpaid phone subscriber adds and raising full-year profit guidance. Investors looked past a small revenue miss, focusing on improving wireless momentum and a stronger outlook. Shares are 16% higher this year.

Deals: → In the energy sector, Shell agreed to acquire Canada’s natural gas producer ARC Resources (mcap $13bn) for $16.4bn (cash, shares and assumed debt), marking its largest deal since the BG Group takeover a decade ago. The acquisition boosts Shell’s shale output and growth profile, addressing investor concerns over limited production expansion. ARC shares jumped 21% today and and is 20% higher YTD.

→ In the pharma sector, India’s Sun Pharma will acquire New Jersey-based Organon & Co (mcap $3.4bn) for a total enterprise value of $11.75bn in cash, paying $14 per share to buy the Merck spinoff with operations across 140 countries. The deal transforms Sun into a top-three global women’s health player and a top-seven biosimilars company, expanding beyond its core generics franchise. Organon shares jumped 17% today.

→ In the healthcare sector, Thermo Fisher (mcap $173bn) will sell its microbiology business to European private-equity firm Astorg for $1.1bn. The unit generated $645mn of revenue last year, implying a sale at roughly 1.7x sales.

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Day Ahead:

Data → US ADP employment change, Australia CPI.

Monetary Policy → Bank of Japan rate decision (unch at 0.75% exp)

Earnings → Visa, Coca-Cola, T-Mobile, Airbus, Booking H, GM, Starbucks, UPS, BP, Barclays, Mondelez.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Markets began the week cautiously as renewed US-Iran tensions unsettled investors, lifting oil prices and pulling equities marginally lower. The Dow slipped while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eased from recent record highs after a turbulent weekend in which the US reportedly seized an Iranian vessel, Iran responded by targeting ships and halting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump said he still aims for a deal, but a truce extension appears unlikely.

Energy markets reacted immediately: crude surged ~5% on Monday, though prices remain below the $100/barrel threshold. Supply concerns intensified after Kuwait declared additional force majeure on crude and refined-product shipments, highlighting how prolonged Hormuz disruption could tighten global flows and keep inflation pressures elevated.

Investors now turn to earnings season, with nearly one-fifth of S&P 500 companies reporting this week, including major aerospace & defence names as well as Intel and Tesla. Markets are balancing strong corporate fundamentals against rising geopolitical risk, higher energy prices, and the possibility that renewed inflation pressure could complicate the rate outlook.

Business News: → Tim Cook will step down as CEO of Apple, and John Ternus, head of hardware engineering, will assume the role on Sep 1. Shares advanced 1% today and are flat YTD.

Economics: → Germany producer prices (PPI) jumped +2.5% MoM in March, the sharpest monthly rise since August 2022 and far above expectations, largely signalling a sudden rebound in industrial input costs after prior weakness. Despite the monthly spike, annual PPI was still -0.2% YoY, showing producer inflation remains below year-ago levels but is rapidly normalising.

→ Canada’s March CPI jumped to 2.4% YoY (from 1.8%) and 0.9% MoM, driven mainly by a gasoline surge tied to the Iran conflict and higher global oil prices. Still, softer-than-expected core inflation near 2.5% suggests broader domestic price pressures remain contained. Markets are likely to read this as an energy shock rather than generalised inflation, meaning the Bank of Canada can probably stay on hold unless oil-driven price gains begin spreading into services and wages.

Deals: → In US biotech, Eli Lilly & Co (mcap $826bn) agreed to acquire privately owned Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7bn, including $3.25bn upfront cash plus milestone payments tied to clinical, regulatory, and commercial progress. Lilly is using cash flows from obesity drugs to aggressively diversify into oncology and next-generation gene/cell therapies. Kelonia’s main asset is KLN-1010, an early-stage in vivo CAR-T therapy for multiple myeloma.

→ QXO Inc (mcap $17bn), a US building-products consolidator, is buying US-based TopBuild Corp (mcap $14bn) for $17bn to gain scale in construction materials distribution and insulation services. Terms: $505/share in a mix of 45% cash and 55% QXO stock, a 23% premium to TopBuild’s prior price. The deal expands QXO into the North American housing, renovation, and commercial building supply market. TopBuild shares gained 19% today and 71% in the LTM.

→ In Canada’s real estate sector, Choice Properties REIT and KingSett Capital will acquire First Capital REIT in a CAD 9.4bn transaction including debt, with shareholders receiving cash plus stock worth an 11.7% premium to the prior close. Choice will take First Capital’s grocery-anchored retail assets (CAD5bn), while KingSett will acquire the remaining portfolio (CAD4.4bn), effectively splitting one of Canada’s major open-air shopping centre owners.

Day Ahead:

Data → US ADP employment change, retail sales, pending home sales; UK employment; Japan balance of trade.

Earnings → GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Raytheon Tech, BHP, Danaher, Intuitive Surgical, 3M.

USMD will take a break until next Monday.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Global markets closed the week in strong risk-on mode, with equities extending their rally as hopes grew for a de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open, while Trump said talks with Tehran could take place this weekend and that a deal to end the war may come soon, helping send oil sharply lower even as some shippers awaited further clarity and security guarantees. European leaders also offered military support to secure the waterway.

Wall Street responded with another powerful advance, capping one of its strongest three-week runs since 2020. The S&P 500 rose every day this week and gained 4.5% WTD, while the Nasdaq surged nearly 7%, driven by an 8% jump in the Mag-7 and broader IT sector strength. All major US equity benchmarks are now positive for the year, with the Russell 2000 leading on a 12% YTD gain.

Bonds rallied as Treasury yields fell ~8bp across the curve, taking the 2-year yield to 3.70%, a four-week low, while currencies were little changed and Bitcoin added 6% on the week.

Today’s data calendar was quiet, with no meaningful economic releases to drive markets. On the earnings front, only Truist Financial (+2.3%) and State Street (+2.5%) reported, both topping estimates, with shares modestly higher.

Deals: → In sports deals, the San Diego Padres are set to be sold by the Seidler family to a group led by José Feliciano and Kwanza Jones for a record $3.9bn, the highest valuation ever for an MLB team. Feliciano is the co-founder of Clearlake Capital and part of the ownership consortium of Chelsea FC. The transaction would surpass the previous MLB sale record of $2.4bn for the New York Mets in 2020.

→ In France’s telecom sector, Bouygues Telecom, Orange, and Iliad Group submitted bids worth ~$24bn for Altice Group’s telecom operations, as controlling shareholder Patrick Drahi seeks to reduce leverage. The proposed transaction would break up SFR and reshape the country’s telecom market, reducing the number of major operators from four to three.

→ In private markets, TPG invested $100mn in Zum, valuing the US student transportation and mobility company at $1.7bn, up from its $1.3bn valuation in the 2024 Series E round.

→ In IPOs, Massachusetts-based Kailera Therapeutics, a biotech focused on obesity and weight-loss drugs (GLP-1/GIP pipeline), raised $625mn, priced its IPO at $16 for a $2.1bn valuation, and shares jumped 62.5% on their Nasdaq debut under the symbol KLRA.

→ California-based Alamar Biosciences, a life sciences company focused on ultra-sensitive proteomics and diagnostics tools, raised $191mn, priced its IPO at $17 per share for an approximately $1.1bn valuation, and shares rose 29% on their Nasdaq debut under the symbol ALMR.

→ AEVEX Aerospace, a US drone and defence technology company, raised $320mn in its NYSE debut, pricing shares at $20 for an implied valuation of ~$1.8bn, with the stock gaining 34% on its first trading day under the symbol AVEX.

Day Ahead:

Data → Sun: China LPR rates. Mon: Canada inflation, Germany PPI.

Earnings → n/a.

That’s all for this week.

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📈 Today’s performance tables.

Good evening,

Markets traded firmer on easing geopolitical tensions after Trump said a deal with Iran was “looking very good” and announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, helping lift risk sentiment as investors also looked for progress toward reopening the strategically vital Hormuz Strait. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher to fresh records on hopes that a broader regional de-escalation could reduce energy supply risks and temper recent volatility.

On the policy front, Fed Governor Stephen Miran struck a slightly more hawkish tone, saying inflation appears stickier and the underlying composition has worsened, leaving less reason for accommodative policy than previously thought.

Separately, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned US authorities should prepare a contingency plan against a potential collapse in Treasury demand, noting that any failed funding scenario could have severe consequences and may ultimately require Federal Reserve intervention as a buyer of last resort.

Netflix (mcap $457bn) plunged 9% in after-hours trading despite reporting Q1 revenue of $12.3bn (+16% YoY), marginally above consensus, and beat EPS estimates but disappointed on its revenue and EPS outlook for Q2.

Q1 was supported by subscriber growth, advertising revenue and recent price increases, but investors appear focused on guidance and management changes, with co-founder Reed Hastings stepping down as chairman. Recent strategic moves also include abandoning its proposed $83bn Warner Bros. Discovery assets deal (collecting a $2.8bn breakup fee) and acquiring Ben Affleck’s AI production startup InterPositive for up to $600m.

Earnings: → Financial earnings were mostly uneventful: US Bancorp and Bank of New York Mellon broadly met or modestly beat estimates, with little stock reaction.

Discount broker leader Charles Schwab (mcap $161bn) was the outlier, falling about 8% despite strong headline numbers: record revenue of $6.5bn (+16% YoY), EPS of $1.43 (+38%), trading volumes up 34%, and $140bn of net new assets lifting total client assets to $11.8tn. The selloff suggests investors focused less on the quarter itself and more on slower cash-sorting normalisation, margin pressure, and softer forward net interest revenue expectations.

→ Abbott Labs (mcap $167bn) fell about 5% despite a slight earnings beat after it cut full-year profit guidance to reflect dilution from its Exact Sciences acquisition, while Q2 EPS guidance also came in light. Shares lost 23% YTD to their lowest level in nearly 3 years.

Economics: → US industrial production fell -0.5% MoM (weaker than expected), while initial jobless claims came in at 207k, below forecasts and still consistent with a resilient labour market, a mixed macro signal of softer manufacturing but ongoing employment strength.

→ China’s Q1 GDP growth of +5.0% YoY was better than expected (consensus +4.8%), accelerating from +4.5% in Q4 and landing at the top end of Beijing’s full-year target range, a near-term positive signal for markets. However, the details were mixed: industrial production +5.7% YoY beat expectations (+5.5%), but retail sales +1.7% YoY missed forecasts (+2.3%) and slowed sharply from +2.8% in Jan-Feb, suggesting the recovery remains manufacturing/export-led rather than consumer-led.

→ UK GDP (Feb) rose +0.5% MoM (vs +0.1% exp) and +1.0% YoY, the strongest monthly gain since January 2024, suggesting the economy entered Q2 with better momentum than feared.

Deals: → In the beverages sector, Sazerac Co, the privately held New Orleans owner of Buffalo Trace, is reportedly bidding around $15bn ($32/share) for Brown-Forman (mcap $13.5bn), the Louisville-based listed maker of Jack Daniel’s. France’s Pernod Ricard is also said to be in discussions, raising the prospect of a competitive takeover process for one of the sector’s best-known US names.

→ St Louis-based Industrial tech company ESCO Technologies ($7.7bn) agreed to acquire Megger Group from The Burndy Group (TBG) in a $2.35bn cash-and-stock deal, adding utility testing and grid-monitoring products to its platform in a transformational expansion of its power infrastructure business.

→ In IPOs, Madison Air Solutions, a US indoor air quality and HVAC systems manufacturer supplying ventilation, filtration and cooling solutions for data centres, healthcare and industrial facilities, raised $2.2bn at a $13.2bn valuation and was priced at $27, the high end of the guidance range. Shares rallied 18.5% on their NYSE debut, lifting their market value to roughly $15.7bn. It was the largest industrials IPO in the US since 1999.

→ Arxis, a US aerospace & defence components manufacturer supplying mission-critical electronic and mechanical parts such as sensors, RF/microwave systems, raised $1.1bn at an $11bn valuation and was priced at $28, the top end of the indicative range. Shares rallied 37% on their Nasdaq debut.

→ In upcoming IPOs, Belgium-based Belron, the world’s largest auto glass repair and replacement group (owner of Autoglass), is preparing an Amsterdam IPO at a potential €30-40bn valuation, which would rank among Europe’s biggest listings in recent years. Backed by D’Ieteren Group and Clayton Dubilier & Rice, the deal would be a welcome boost for Europe’s sluggish IPO market after shareholders reportedly favoured Amsterdam over New York.

→ X-Energy, the Maryland-based, Amazon-backed private small modular nuclear reactor developer, is targeting a $7.5bn valuation in its planned IPO, seeking to raise $815mn by selling shares at $16–19. The deal reflects rising investor interest in nuclear power tied to AI-driven data centre electricity demand.

Day Ahead:

Data → none of significance. Earnings → Truist Financial, State Street, Marsh & McL.

See you tomorrow.

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All rights reserved. This publication contains proprietary content and is intended solely for the recipient’s personal use. Disclaimer: Our service is for informational purposes only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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