Mon 26 Jan: After the Bell
Markets Firm Up: Weaker Dollar, Strong Metals, Fed in Focus ➡️
ℹ️ Today’s tables & charts on the ‘Market Data’ post.
Good evening,
Risk assets opened the week on a firm footing, with major US equity indices rising about 0.5% on Monday to extend gains to nearly 3% over the past week, as market sentiment continued to recover from last week’s tariff-related shock tied to Europe and Greenland.
The focus shifted to FX, where the dollar weakened further against major currencies — particularly the yen, which staged a sharp reversal on political and central bank headlines — pushing the DXY to a four-month low near 97 and leaving it down 1.3% YTD. Precious metals remained strong, with gold holding above $5,000, while silver was again the standout, surging toward $120 before easing to $105, up 4% on the day and 19% over the past week.
Rates were largely unchanged, with benchmark Treasury yields slipping a few basis points ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, while in commodities, US natural-gas prices jumped another 6% as severe winter weather disrupted energy supply and transportation across parts of the country.
In US politics, a partial government shutdown is increasingly likely by Friday, but its economic impact may be uneven, with key data agencies like Commerce and Agriculture funded while Labour and transportation agencies face disruption, raising targeted risks to economic reporting and airport operations.
Economics: It was a quiet start to the week for data releases.
→ US durable goods orders jumped 5.3% MoM in November, the biggest monthly gain since May and well above expectations, rebounding strongly from October’s decline and signalling resilient manufacturing demand. Core orders excluding transportation and defence are also up significantly on the year (about double-digit gains), underscoring continued strength in business investment sentiment.
Corporate Deals: Several deals were announced on Monday.
→ Leidos Holdings, a US government services and engineering group, agreed to acquire Entrust Solutions Group, an energy-infrastructure engineering firm owned by Kohlberg & Co., for approx $2.4bn in cash, a deal that will effectively double Leidos’s energy-infrastructure-engineering business; the acquisition will be funded with $500m of cash on hand, $500m of commercial paper and $1.4bn of new debt.
→ CVC, the global private capital firm, agreed to acquire Marathon Asset Management, a New York–based private credit manager, for up to $1.6bn, comprising $1.2bn in cash and shares plus up to $400m in earnouts, significantly expanding CVC’s credit platform and adding €17bn of fee-paying AUM as it accelerates its push into the US private credit market.
→ In Canada, Allied Gold (mcap $4bn), a Canadian gold miner, agreed to be acquired by Zijin Gold International, a Hong Kong–based global gold producer, in a $4bn all-cash deal at CAD 44 per share, representing a 27% premium to the 30-day VWAP, as surging gold prices and strong equity performance underpinned consolidation in the gold mining sector.
→ In the UK, private equity firms Bridgepoint and Triton are in preliminary takeover talks to acquire Spire Healthcare (mcap £845mn), the UK’s largest private hospital operator (38 hospitals, 50+ clinics), following a strategic review. Deal value: undisclosed; talks are early-stage, but the announcement drove Spire shares up 18%, highlighting strong PE interest in the private healthcare services sector.
→ In Europe, EP Group, controlled by Daniel Křetínský, has proposed to acquire Fnac Darty (mcap €1.03bn), the French electronics and media retailer, at €36 per share, valuing the company at ~€1.05bn and representing a 19% premium to the prior close. EP Group already owns 28.5% of Fnac Darty, does not intend to pursue a mandatory delisting, and the announcement lifted the shares by about 17%.
Day Ahead:
→ Data: US ADP weekly employment change, Australia inflation.
→ Earnings: LVMH, UnitedHealth, Raytheon, NextEra, Boeing, Texas Ins, GM, UPS.
See you tomorrow.
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