Thu 20 Nov: After the Bell🔒

Your 5’ evening market wrap 📄📈

Good evening,

Thursday delivered exceptional volatility across risk assets. US equities initially surged on Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings yesterday evening, with the Nasdaq 100 jumping 2.3% at the open, before sentiment sharply reversed in the afternoon. The index ultimately closed down 2.4%, a ~5% intraday swing, while Nvidia fell 3% after an almost 8% round-trip move despite reporting record results. The VIX spiked from 20 to 28 intraday before settling at 26.5%.

The catalyst was a series of hawkish remarks from Fed officials, which raised caution around the December meeting and the broader easing cycle. With 20 days to go until the next FOMC decision, futures now imply a 60% probability of no rate change. The shift in tone overshadowed strong Walmart earnings, robust labour-market data, and the first meaningful set of economic releases following the longest government shutdown on record.

Treasury yields eased by roughly 4bp across the curve, with the 2-year closing at 3.55%. Risk aversion hit digital assets hard: Bitcoin and Ethereum each fell more than 3% again, with Bitcoin sliding to $86,680, its lowest level since April, leaving it 31% below its October peak and 22% under its 200-day moving average. Despite the turbulence, gold and the $ index were largely unchanged.

Central banks: → Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed may be nearing the end of what could be a short rate-cutting cycle, stressing that policy is “barely restrictive, if at all.” She argued the Fed must maintain a “somewhat restrictive” stance to ensure inflation continues to move toward the Fed’s target and warned that easing too quickly risks prolonging elevated inflation. Hammack added that the labour market remains solid enough that further cuts aimed at supporting employment could heighten financial-stability risks.