Tue 17 Mar: After the Bell
Energy Spike Complicates Fed Outlook Amid Rising Tensions
ℹ️ Today’s performance tables.
Good evening,
Geopolitical tensions remain front and centre as Trump criticised NATO allies and key partners for refusing to support US military efforts against Iran, calling their reluctance a “foolish mistake,” even as several countries declined to join a multinational effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Trump argued the US had already severely weakened Iran’s military and no longer needed foreign assistance, highlighting growing fractures among Western allies as the conflict escalates.
On the ground, the situation continues to deteriorate: Iran maintained strikes on regional energy infrastructure, reportedly setting a major UAE gas field ablaze, while Israel intensified its campaign, killing senior Iranian figures. The loss of key leadership could disrupt Iran’s command structure and risk further escalation.
Domestically, tensions spilt into Washington as Joe Kent, head of the National Counterterrorism Centre, resigned in protest, citing opposition to the war and arguing Iran posed no imminent threat. (NYT)
Markets are increasingly sensitive to the conflict’s economic spillovers. Brent climbed back above $103/bbl while WTI approached $96, extending the conflict-driven rally as supply risks in the Gulf intensify; US diesel prices have also surged above $5/gallon for the first time since late 2022. The renewed spike in energy costs complicates the global macro outlook just as inflation had been easing, raising the stakes for policymakers ahead of the Fed’s meeting tomorrow, where the path toward potential rate cuts now looks more uncertain.
Monetary Policy: → The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 bp to 4.10%, in line with expectations, marking the highest level since April 2025. Policymakers flagged that inflation remains above target and sticky in services, while maintaining a data-dependent stance, leaving the door open to further tightening if price pressures persist. (CNBC)
→ Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75% as expected, maintaining its wait-and-see stance. Policymakers highlighted that inflation remains broadly manageable and within target over the medium term, but emphasised currency stability (rupiah weakness) and global risks as key constraints, suggesting limited room for near-term easing despite prior expectations for cuts. (WSJ)
Economics: → US data were mixed, with ADP (wkly) employment rising a modest +9k, broadly in line with a steady but unspectacular labour backdrop. In contrast, pending home sales jumped +1.8% MoM, well above expectations, signalling a stronger-than-expected rebound in housing activity despite remaining slightly negative YoY (-0.8%).
Corporate Deals: → Victory Capital sweetened its ~$8.6bn cash-and-stock offer for asset manager Janus Henderson (mcap $8bn), increasing the cash component to revive talks after an earlier rejection. The move aims to disrupt Janus’s agreed $7.4bn all-cash take-private with Trian Partners and General Catalyst, kicking off a competitive process.
→ Mastercard (mcap $456bn) agreed to acquire stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK for up to $1.8bn (including $300m earnouts), accelerating its push into blockchain-based payments. The deal strengthens Mastercard’s position in fiat–stablecoin rails, as it competes with Visa to capture growth in faster, lower-cost digital payment systems amid improving regulatory clarity. BVNK is a UK-based fintech startup (founded in 2021) focused on stablecoin payments infrastructure and backed by Coinbase Ventures, Haun Ventures and Tiger Global, among others.
→ Canadian businessman Stephen Smith, through Smith Financial Corporation, agreed to acquire a ~27% stake in The Economist Group from Lynn Forester de Rothschild and related entities for £300m, marking the publisher’s first ownership change in a decade.
Day Ahead:
Monetary Policy → Fed meeting, unchanged at 3.5-3.75% expected (Futures imply a 99% chance of no rate change).
Data → US PPI inflation, factory orders; €-zone (final) inflation update.
Earnings → Micron Tech (PM), Tencent, General Mills.
See you tomorrow.
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