Wed 3 Dec: After the Bell🔒

Soft Jobs Data Fuels Rate-Cut Optimism. Your 5’ evening market wrap📄📈

ℹ️ Today’s performance tables & charts on the ‘Market Data’ post.

ℹ️ We started posting a ‘Morning Markets Update’ on Substack Notes at ~6 AM NYT — these updates won’t be emailed.

---

Good evening,

Wall Street equities closed higher on Wednesday as a sharp deterioration in ADP employment data prompted investors to increase their conviction that the Fed will cut rates next week, with futures now pricing an 89% probability of a move. With attention squarely on the labour market, markets are betting that a lower-rate environment could revive loan growth and provide a boost to the broader US economy.

Equity benchmarks finished modestly higher, led by gains in energy and financials, while European markets were little changed. Core bond yields drifted a few basis points lower, with the 10-year Treasury remaining firmly range-bound between 4.0% and 4.15% in recent months.

In FX markets, £ rallied 1% to a one-month high after UK business activity surprised to the upside, prompting traders to unwind bearish positions. A stronger-than-expected Composite PMI reading (51.2 vs. 50.5 forecast) reinforced improving economic sentiment and coincided with a softer dollar. The DXY $ index fell to a one-month low as the $ weakened against all other majors today. Bitcoin maintained its recovery, advancing 2% to over $93k, a two-week high.

Business News: → OpenAI triggered a “code red” as Sam Altman moved to re-prioritise speed, reliability, and personalisation in ChatGPT amid intensifying competitive pressure. The shift comes as French start-up Mistral launched a new suite of high-performance open models, underscoring the rapid advances by challengers. Together, the developments highlight an accelerating race for leadership in next-generation AI systems.

Data: → The ADP report showed US private-sector employment sank by 32k jobs in November, a sharp reversal from the prior month and well below the ~10k job gain analysts expected. The weak print — the biggest drop since spring ‘23 — reflects softness particularly among small businesses and has reinforced market expectations of a rate cut by the Fed next week.

→ Switzerland’s annual inflation rate dropped to 0.0% in November 2025, the lowest since May. The unexpectedly soft reading underscores subdued price pressures and reduces near-term urgency for additional tightening by the Swiss National Bank. The CHF appreciated nearly 0.5% today to 0.800 against the $.